June retail sales up 4.2% increase over 2017 despite threats from trade war.
June retail sales were up 0.07% seasonally adjusted from May’s strong performance and increased 4.2% unadjusted year-over-year as economic growth continued despite the U.S. trade war with China and other countries, the National Retail Federation (NRF) reported. The numbers exclude automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants, but show that customers are feeling optimistic about the economy and their spending habits show it.
“This is a healthy retail sales report and consistent with underlying economic momentum that has fueled a steady run of retail sales increases,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The big question is whether households can continue this spending pace, which is helping drive the current economic cycle. We think they can, but the big risk to the outlook is the trade war, which could raise prices while reducing consumer confidence and household buying power.”
The three-month moving average was up 4.4% over the same period a year ago, matching the top end of NRF’s forecast that 2018 retail sales will grow between 3.8% and 4.4% over 2017.
The June results build on improvement seen in May, which was up 1% monthly and up 6.1% year-over-year.
NRF’s numbers are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which said overall June sales – including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants – were up 0.5% seasonally adjusted from May and up 6.6% year-over-year.
Specifics from key retail sectors during June include:
Online and other non-store sales were up 7.3% year-over-year and up 1.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
Health and personal care stores were up 5.8% year-over-year and up 2.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 4.6% year-over-year but down 2.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 4.4% year-over-year and up 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
Grocery and beverage stores were up 4.2% year-over-year but down 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
General merchandise stores were up 3.1% year-over-year but down 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
Building materials and garden supply stores were up 2.8% year-over-year and up 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
Electronics and appliance stores were up 1.6% year-over-year but down 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
Sporting goods stores were down 3.7% year-over-year and down 3.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
