We’ll find out pretty soon what cigarette smokers really think about the menthol ban. C-store operators will quickly learn whether smoker commitment to the cool menthol taste they say they love can carry them beyond tobacco cigarettes to other forms of menthol enjoyment.
Sooner or later, America’s retailers will follow California and Massachusetts to the end of the flavor era, and along with it, regulatory confusion, tax losses and smuggling. In the meantime, menthol vape, menthol oral nicotine, menthol hemp cigarettes and most recently menthol nicotine-free filtered smokes will be introduced at the NACS show and presented in distributor meetings.
What Are Menthol Smokers Telling Us?
In survey after survey, the surprising majority of flavored cigar and menthol cigarette smokers state that flavor and taste are far more important to their smoking pleasure than nicotine or tobacco. For many menthol smokers, nicotine delivers the buzz and comfort that feed their need. But for 60% of them, the relaxing menthol taste is twice as important as nicotine for the cooling satisfaction they gain from their ritual moments.
Without explaining why, menthol smokers rank tobacco even less important than nicotine as a component of their enjoyment. In an April 2023 national survey of menthol smokers by California-based Q&A Research, only 17% of menthol smokers said tobacco was the most important part of their smoking pleasure. Menthol smokers may finally be acknowledging that the only reason for tobacco versus other natural constituents is that it delivers the nicotine.
This may be a hopeful sign for menthol vape products, but menthol smokers will still prefer lighting up.
What’s the Difference?
Advancements in flavor science over the past 8 or 10 years have produced a wide selection of tobacco-compatible tastes for e-liquid aerosols and oral nicotine products as well as for hemp cigarettes and non-addictive botanical smokes. For example, taste trials of nicotine-free menthol smokes have produced consumer acceptance among regular menthol smokers at an easily sustainable level.
So why would menthol smokers who are soon to lose the coolness of their menthol smoke breaks want to abandon the taste they love? About half said they were fine transitioning to nicotine-free as long as the taste was similar to what they have now. The absence of nicotine gave them more control over when and how frequently they light up. The blends and menthol smoothness were close enough that more than 30% of menthol smokers stated they couldn’t taste the difference.
Managing Menthol Retail Expectations
Menthol is the preferred taste of 32% of all cigarette smokers. Less than a third of trial menthol smokers missed their nicotine enough to complain, which leaves a potential market of millions of menthol smokers who may want to light up legal menthols that are exempt from FDA bans and federal taxes.
Some will quit or take up menthol vape. Some will switch to regular cigarettes or oral nicotine. More than half said they’d try a pack of nicotine-free menthols. With no nicotine and the true menthol taste they already enjoy, we’ll find out soon enough how many will buy their second pack.
The usage survey was conducted from April to May of 2023 among 600 adult regular menthol smokers from 25-78 years old.
An Afterthought
There are two ironies to the menthol ban. First, by the time it is enforced, cigarette smoking as a tobacco choice will have been reduced to about the same level as if the menthol ban had never happened. That’s from the CDC 20-year objective. Second, menthol smoking by youth, the FDA’s original target, is already less than 6/10 of 1% of that census age group.
According to the most recent Gallup poll, cigarette smoking on a regular basis is now down to 11.6% of the adult population. Based on current trends, that will put total menthol smokers at 3% by 2026. After that, there will be enough menthol flavored products on the shelf to keep menthol lovers happy and the FDA busy for the foreseeable future.
