The tobacco industry seems generally pleased that Republicans have gained control of the Senate and House of Representatives along with the White House. Tobacco companies contributed more than $45 million dollars to Trump-focused PACs, and expect that their donations will be returned in long-term business benefits. Will more planned tobacco rulemaking be postponed? Are flavored cigar and menthol cigarette makers getting another reprieve?
Well, maybe not so much. President-elect Donald Trump may have a surprise or two for the tobacco industry for the same basic reason that he’s surprising Washington with his quick-draw cabinet choices and White House staff picks. His personal likes and dislikes are fundamental to his choices and far outweigh public policy and procedure in his decision making. His beliefs are based on intuition and entitlement, loyalty over logic. For now, I think c-stores might want to stay the course on prepared foods, gourmet coffees, fresh deli and premium cigars.
The tobacco industry’s $45 million has already fulfilled his purpose. If you think Trump feels like he owes them something in return, you’re probably wrong. Trump is not a friend of tobacco. He has never smoked. He doesn’t like the smell of cigars. He disdains tobacco use. He “saved vape” not because he felt government had overstepped its regulatory bounds, but because he reportedly believed vaping would result in tobacco cessation.
What’s Next Will Take a While
Once he’s president again, he’ll need to deal with bigger global and national issues before he gets around to tobacco use and nicotine levels. He’ll start with shutting down the southern border, shrinking government, averting the risk of cyber-attacks and nuclear war, which he believes he can fend off because Putin will listen to him.
He has nominated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to be Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). Set aside Kennedy’s extreme beliefs about fluorides and vaccines. He is a zealot about “the health of our country’s youth.” He is on the record about banning vape flavors and talks about his personal struggle with nicotine. He is a strong critic of ultra-processed foods.
Who Will Be the Decider?
Trump has also nominated Dr. Martin Makary to lead the Food & Drug Administration (FDA). He’ll be responsible for regulating and overseeing tobacco and drugs along with food, medical devices and cosmetics. Dr. Makary is a surgical oncologist and public policy professor at Johns Hopkins School of medicine. He is an author and innovator in laparoscopic surgery, and has firm opinions about government response to the pandemic.
Presume for now that Kennedy and Dr. Makary are approved by the Senate. Starting in January they’ll sit through FDA briefings and policy meetings, chart the future and make a lot of staff changes. Maybe by April or May they’ll get around to the Center for Tobacco Products (CTP).
They’re going to review health data and logic for banning menthols and flavors, evaluate the FDA’s strategy for oral nicotine vs. combustible tobacco, and 20 years of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data on youth tobacco trends, smoking related deaths and declining tobacco use. The fact that Dr. Makary is a dedicated cancer surgeon should be your first clue about where he’ll stand on tobacco policy. Trump staff appointees are likely to oppose continuing the flavor and menthol bans, which will make things interesting. We’ll see.
When the dust settles, RFK Jr. and Dr. Makary will let the tobacco bans move forward, but by the time they’re finally enforced it may not matter much. CDC trend studies indicate that three years from now maybe 2 or 3% of the under-30 age group will be smoking menthols. Dr. Makary may also advocate a ban on vape and oral nicotine flavors, and caps on nicotine content. Success of this will depend on interpretation of the FDA’s deeming authority, which will need an act of congress to change.
I think the bans will be enacted by the mid-term elections and be enforced before the end of 2027. President Trump won’t stand in the way. Meanwhile, c-stores are serving hot breakfasts and premium cigars.
John Geoghegan has spent the last 30 years in the tobacco business, including vice president strategic planning at General Cigar Co., U.S. manager for DjEEP Lighters, head of marketing for Kretek International Inc. and manager of LaMirada Cigar Co. He began his career 57 years ago at Procter & Gamble. Geoghegan is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati. He lives in Laguna Niguel, Calif.
