As inflation has pushed prices higher, customers are feeling the pinch in the candy and snack aisles.
Customers are “absolutely looking for value,” said Randy Adams, category manager for Martin & Bayley Inc., which operates more than 130 Huck’s Market locations across Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. While he expects the economy to steadily improve in 2025, he pointed out that customers are still struggling financially, which means some luxuries remain out of reach.
“In other high-inflation years, candy was the cheap indulgence to make up for the loss of those luxuries. I don’t think that’s the case now,” he added.
Richard Perry, category manager for Nouria, which operates more than 170 c-stores in New England, concurred that inflation is impacting the candy and snack categories and driving customer demand for value.
“I think this is one of the reasons private label had its best year in 2024,” he said. “We will still see customers less price sensitive due to the nature of being a convenient option, but we keep an eye on our market to make sure we are priced appropriately.”
Beyond value, customers are also seeking new flavors and combinations, Perry noted. “Whether this is driven from innovation or limited-time offers (LTOs) or (what’s) popular on social media, customers are coming into c-stores looking for interesting items. You still need the top items, but I think there are more opportunities to cut innovation into core sets.”
Chocolate & Non-Chocolate
The National Confectioners Association (NCA) told CStore Decisions that consumers are continuing to make room in their budgets for chocolate and candy in 2025.
What’s more, different generations are showing specific candy preferences.
Chocolate makes up the largest segment of the $48 billion confectionery industry, per NCA, with milk chocolate topping the list as Americans’ favorite chocolate (40%), followed by dark chocolate (28%) and white chocolate (7%). Meanwhile, 26% “would be happy with any variety.” Some 47% of consumers prefer chocolate mixed with ingredients such as caramel, peanut butter, almonds and peanuts. Millennials are most likely to choose chocolate that contains other flavors, while Gen Z gravitates toward plain chocolate sans inclusions. Caramel has the largest appeal across generations, NCA pointed out.
Gen Z and millennials are driving growth in the non-chocolate segment, NCA noted. “They are most likely to browse the aisle for something new and purchase their candy online, often turning to YouTube, TikTok and Instagram for confectionery inspiration. In fact, the share of online confectionery sales increased by more than 15% between 2023 and 2024 — a pattern we expect to continue in the future,” NCA told CStore Decisions.
But Gen Z and millennials are also more likely than older generations to make confectionery purchases at convenience stores, NCA explained.
Still, chocolate sales overall fell 2.9% in dollar sales and 5.9% in unit sales in the c-store channel for the calendar year ending Dec. 29, per Chicago-based research firm Circana. Non-chocolate candy dollar sales rolled in flat (0.1%) with unit sales down 5% for the same period.
At Huck’s Market non-chocolate overtook chocolate in total sales in 2024.
“I’ll be watching that closely to determine space allocations in 2025,” revealed Adams.
But Adams isn’t optimistic on the candy sales outlook for the year. “I’m afraid I expect sales to slow in 2025 due to pricing,” he said. “I think the entire industry is getting to the ‘insult pricing’ point.”
At Rutter’s, gummies are seeing big growth both in sales volume and “new innovation” items. “As cocoa prices continue to push chocolate retails higher, gummy and peg-bag candy have given consumers a perceived added value,” said Cameron Baer, center store category manager, The Rutter’s Cos., which operates 88 locations in Pennsylvania, Maryland and West Virginia. “This year we will lean into this innovation by expanding our sets within this space.”
In 2025, Perry is watching to see how LTOs perform — whether it be private-label items or new offerings from major brands. “Innovation is driving excitement and incremental sales,” he noted. He’s also watching the premium chocolate trend, wondering if customers will continue to treat themselves to higher-quality products or better-for-you brands or if they will suffer from inflationary pressures.
Nouria is also keeping an eye on Dubai chocolate and other social media trendy products and is watching to see if there will be more innovation with new fillings and textures in 2025. Further, Nouria is watching whether lower sugar, sugar alternatives and/or functional candy become larger players in the channel.
In 2025, Perry expects candy sales to end up flat or slightly higher than 2024.
“With our investment into the market through remodels and new-to-industry (NTI) stores, strong private-label portfolio, innovative products and working with our valued partners to promote, I think we will be able to navigate some of the challenges to the category in 2025,” Perry said.
He anticipates that those challenges will include rising cocoa and product costs and regulatory pressure. He acknowledged that consumers may not have the same discretionary income for treating themselves or will seek out value options.
What’s more, as an increasing number of Americans treat diabetes and obesity by becoming glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) users — i.e taking GLP-1 agonist medication to help lower blood sugar levels — there’s an increased trend toward everyday Americans watching their sugar intake. Circana reported sugar-free chocolate candy rose 30% in dollar sales and 29.5% in unit sales in 2024.
“A growing number of GLP-1 users will contribute to a difficult environment for candy in 2025,” he said.
Gum Trends
At convenience stores, overall gum dollar sales came in flat (1.5%) in 2024, with units down 3.2%, per Circana.
Nouria, by contrast, saw strong gum sales in 2024, up more than 10% in sales. “I think we will have a good year in 2025 as well, but maybe not as high of growth,” Perry said. Nouria saw more customers trading up to larger bottles/packs of gum in 2024, a trend Perry expects will continue this year.
“Consumers are clearly paying more for a larger pack, understanding the value versus a single pack gum,” Perry said. “We had a big focus in our planograms as well. We were able to partner with manufacturers as well on promotions, and those brands performed the best.”
In terms of gum brands, Perry is watching to see how Ice Breakers Flavor Shifters and other combo-flavor gums perform, as well as whether more brands introduce gums with added benefits, such as functionality or energy, like Rev.
“There is some data that GLP-1 users are buying more gum — that will be interesting to watch,” he added.
Salty Snacks
When it comes to salty snacks, Adams is anticipating sales that are flat or have only a slight uptick. Pricing hasn’t been “as overheated” in salty snacks compared to other segments like candy.
In 2024, salty snack dollar sales were flat (-0.2%) with unit sales down 4.3% in the c-store channel, per Circana.
Baer sees bold flavors continue to dominate snacks in 2025. “This year’s trend appears to be a combination of flavors in the same package, such as the new Planters Duos items, to bring variety in one package,” Baer added.
At Nouria, Perry noticed a trend toward bold flavors as well, specifically spicy and savory, as well as flavor mixing. He also expects protein content to be more recognizable on packaging, given that more consumers are looking for protein in everything. Perry is also keeping an eye on international snack options.
“I think the Calbee Asian snacks could be a hit — Meiji Hello Panda, Pocky and Hi-Chew all brought incremental sales to the channel. I’m watching when Korean snacks are going to enter the market with Korean entertainment moving even more mainstream, especially with the younger generation,” he said.
Better-for-you options are also on Perry’s radar in 2025. “I think these brands are going to continue to grow as consumers are paying more attention to the ingredient label, whether it be nutritional facts, cooking oils or less ingredients, all leading to customers switching to healthier snacks.”
On the pricing front, Perry expects to see some challenges as some of the larger snack manufacturers pass on cost increases and decrease weights, especially with potato chips.
“I think legacy chip brands will be under pressure in 2025,” he added.
Nouria has been seeing pack sizes shrinking in the snack aisle. “Shrinkflation is a real thing,” Perry said. ”I think more companies are looking to offer multiple pack sizes to offer customers a lower-ticket option and a larger size to offer the best per-ounce value to customers.”
At present, Adams isn’t seeing much change to package sizes across the various snack subcategories, but he does expect size changes “will become the norm as companies realize they can’t continue to raise prices.”
“Even with the economic pressures on our consumers, we continue to see customers lean towards larger pack sizes,” Baer said. “Some of this is a result of the value that the consumer sees with the larger pack size.”
Many of Rutter’s stores are located off busy interstates, so often customers are seeking snack items that can last them for a longer duration during their trip, rather than fulfilling an immediate craving, Baer explained.
Meat Snacks
When it comes to meat snacks, Adams again expects inflationary pricing to impact sales. “I think sticks and steaks will be flat to a slight increase, but I expect jerky to be down,” Adams said. “Again, I think it all has to do with pricing. When bag jerky crosses the $9 price point there is an immediate decline in units.”
Nouria, by contrast, expects meat snack sales to rise in 2025. “We had a good 2024 with this segment with customers looking for healthier snacks, higher protein, etc.,” Perry said. He expects sticks to outperform bags this year, as they did in 2024.
“It will be interesting to see what alternative meat options such as chicken, pork or “wild game” grow in 2025,” he added.
Nuts & Seeds
Nuts and seeds has never been a strong category for Adams at Huck’s, and he’s not expecting much change in 2025.
Nouria recently launched a line of private-label nut and fruit mixes, which Perry noted were “off to a good start” sales-wise. “This will really help us drive sales growth in 2025 in this segment,” he said.
He’s also watching to see how some new innovative products coming to the segment perform.
“I am excited to see how the Dunkin’ partnership with Kars will perform. Being in the Northeast, Dunkin’ has such a strong presence,” Perry said. “The Smackin’ sunflower seed brand has caught my attention with new flavors like garlic parm and churro and social media presence.”
At Rutter’s, “hot” continues to be the big trend for flavor profile in nuts and seeds, Baer said. “This year pickle flavors, such as dill, seem to be leading the charge for taste innovation.”
Sweet Snacks
At Huck’s, “snack cakes are on fire, and continue to grow year over year,” Adams said. “Other sweet snacks is a soft category overall, but there is some innovation coming — Post Malone and Selena Gomez Oreos, for example. The innovation might drive some sales.”
Nouria expects growth in the sweet snack segment in 2025. “Nutrition/granola bars performed very well in 2024,” Perry said. “Our private-label pastries and sweet snacks continue to be some of our highest-performing items in the store. We are planning some LTOs this year as well, which should drive some excitement to the line.”
Perry anticipates that both better-for-you and indulgent products will perform well in 2025 while “middle of the road” offerings could struggle. “There are more people looking for healthier options or people who may be eating less, but when they do, they want something that is really going to taste good and be extra indulgent,” he explained.
Cookies, on the other hand, Perry expects to have a tough year in 2025, depending on how innovation performs. “This segment faces a lot of the same challenges that chocolate and candy do,” he explained, both in terms of rising costs and pressures on ingredient pricing. Plus, he pointed out that cookies, like candy, are “another segment that suffers as consumers switch to healthier products or are GLP-1 users.”
“I also don’t feel the cookie innovation I’ve seen so far for 2025 is going to be that impactful — but I could be wrong. It will be interesting to see,” he added.
Adams remains hopeful overall for the categories in 2025. “I think things will start improving quickly, but it is going to take time to get people out and spending money again,” Adams said. “When gas prices improve and people start seeing more cash in their pockets, I think the overall sales will get a bump.”
