The National Retail Federation (NRF), alongside CNBC, has reported that retail spending declined in February due to several factors, including cold weather, declining consumer confidence and tariff concerns. Year-over-year spending, however, has continued to grow.
“Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas, were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 3.38% unadjusted year over year in February, according to the Retail Monitor. That is compared with a decrease of 1.07% month over month and an increase of 5.44% year over year in January.
Total sales were up 4.41% year-over-year for the first two months of the year and core sales were up 4.91%. That compares with 3.6% growth for the full year in 2024.
The February monthly downturn came after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico at the beginning of February. The Canada-Mexico tariffs were immediately delayed by a month, then delayed again for most goods until April 2 last week, but the tariffs on China were doubled to 20%. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January, marking the second monthly decline after five months of small gains.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
February sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores and general merchandise stores. Sales were down in all but two categories on a monthly basis.
