Picture this: Sometime around October 2024, a couple of 40-something menthol smokers visit their regular c-stores and ask for their preferred menthol cigarette brands.

“Sorry we can’t stock or sell those anymore,” the clerk says. “But we have these new nicotine-free menthols. They say they come close. No tobacco.”

Do you think our menthol smokers will turn them down and walk out of the store? Will they opt for a pack of regular cigarettes? Do you think the taste will be close enough without the nicotine? Do you think they will come back for another pack? Will they tell their friends?

Four factors will help make the decision. First, the menthol taste will be close enough to what they expect. Next, the neural calm of menthol will be relaxing enough to buy another pack, even without nicotine. Third, the price will be $2 lower because there’s no federal excise tax. Most importantly, nicotine-free will be the only menthol smoking choice left.

Weighing Taste, Health & Buzz

While we wait on a formal announcement from the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) on the effective date to ban menthol and flavored tobacco, it’s starting to look like tobacco-free smoking might earn a sustainable foothold beyond the internet and specialty shops. State and local tobacco units are already looking at nicotine-free, non-tobacco rules. That’s probably the strongest signal that it’s worth some shelf space.

Are retailers ready for the reality of nicotine-free menthols replacing empty c-store slots? My guess is that maybe 15% of current menthol cigarette smokers will try a pack. If half of those decide nicotine-free is better than quitting, there’s $1.37 billion looking for a cash register even with reduced frequency. Smaller, but still sustainable.

The FDA’s science-based position is pretty basic. Tobacco smoke is harmful and carcinogenic. Smoking tobacco creates major health risks. Nicotine is addictive. Flavors including menthol make smoking more enjoyable. Therefore, get rid of menthol flavor.

The reality for a smoker is not so simple. Menthol can enhance nicotine dependency, but also creates neural and physiological pathways for relaxation and escape from stress.

The first difference smokers notice is the absence of nicotine. Smoking comparisons between non-tobacco nicotine-free and tobacco-nicotine cigarettes invariably end with “I don’t know what it is, but something’s missing,” or “I’m just not getting my buzz.”

Tobacco works best for nicotine delivery because it’s built into the leaf. Tobacco taste has been engineered over the years to be enjoyable. Properly flavored, new non-tobacco blends can deliver comparable taste. Addictive or not, nothing relaxes like a smooth menthol exhale.

Other than that, the taste difference between tobacco and high-quality botanical blends is becoming negligible. They won’t be Virginia Burley, but they won’t be your Aunt Agatha’s herbals, either.

Lawsuits notwithstanding, in the new c-store tobacco market the only other menthol smokers’ choices will be quitting or regular tobacco flavor. They want the taste to be similar to their now-defunct menthol brand. After that, Nielsen data will show us how many of today’s menthol smokers have enough nicotine tolerance to do without and still enjoy their smoke.

Growing concerns regarding health and tobacco use are also changing the value equation. Tobacco-free will create alternative choices that didn’t exist before. How will greater availability of nicotine-free menthols affect smokers’ health concerns as new choices appear on the shelf?

Not every smoker will adapt, and smoking frequency will notably decline without nicotine. A new model will emerge for marketers to provide loyalty and volume incentives. Retail margins will expand with the residual benefits of new business that’s free of excise taxes in most areas.

When the FDA gets around to enacting the flavor bans on cigars and menthol cigarettes, the tobacco landscape will change. Replacement of current shelf facings, including menthol favorites, will add to nicotine-free trial. How much will depend, not only on how many smokers miss their nicotine, but also on how retailers adapt to the new reality as it emerges?

There are 10 million menthol smokers. They are loyal to their menthol moments and most don’t care for regular cigarettes. A majority of them are well over 35 years old. They buy from their go-to c-store 90% of the time. The most recent Nielsen report reported that customers pay an average of $8.70 per pack.

How much will they pay for a pack of nicotine-free filtered menthols? We’ll see next year.

John Geoghegan has spent the last 30 years in the tobacco business, including vice president strategic planning at General Cigar Co., U.S. manager for DjEEP Lighters, head of marketing for Kretek International Inc. and manager of LaMirada Cigar Co. He began his career 57 years ago at Procter & Gamble. Geoghegan is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati. He lives in Laguna Niguel, Calif.