In an old episode of Seinfeld, an annoying character asks Jerry when they might do lunch.
Jerry’s classic answer was “How about never? Does never work for you?”
Eleven years ago, the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) published a detailed announcement seeking commentary on their intent to ban menthol cigarettes. Three years ago, they issued their menthol and flavor ban proposal for comments. Two years ago, the formal proposed rulemaking to ban menthols and other flavors arrived. And here we are.
Six months ago, after the proposed ban was sent to the Office of Management and Budget, I wrote about c-stores’ attempts to plan their removals and shelf re-sets around the FDA’s shifting enactment schedule. In December, concerns over ethnic fairness and the enforcement cost of smuggled menthols reached into the Biden White House, stalling the FDA’s effort to enact the bans.
We’re now heading into April 2024. Educated estimates for a final announcement are now for after the November elections. Replacements products are set to include alternative nicotine products as well as nicotine-free menthol and flavored smokes. So far, the FDA’s enactment date isn’t in anyone’s date book.
Meanwhile, California and Massachusetts have passed their own menthol cigarette bans with expensive lessons learned about smuggling and tax loss. New York, Oregon, New Jersey and New Mexico legislatures are considering bans. Vermont is scheduled to begin their menthol ban in January 2026. You can probably find odds in Las Vegas whether Vermont or the FDA will get there first.
Meanwhile Smoking Rates Continue Their Steady Decline
While this has been going on, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s (CDC) objective has been to reduce combusted tobacco use to 5% of the adult population by 2030. Data shows that smokers are ahead of the curve.
Among 18-25 year-olds, the daily or near-daily 2023 smoking rate is already 5.3%. Menthol cigarette use on a recurring basis by 12-17-year-olds is less than 1% when measured by the 2023 Youth Tobacco National Survey compared to census data for that age group.
In 2002, adults who smoked cigarettes on a daily basis were 24% of the population. By the end of 2023 it was 11.4%. As I reported six months ago, cigarette purchase volume between 2002 and 2022 declined by 57%.
Individual annual pack sales decreased from 101 packs to 39 packs per smoker. The trend line hasn’t changed.
Smokers are quitting because of local restrictions, peer shaming, fewer venues, price increases, higher taxes and an increasing fear of illness and death, abetted by the fact that the cigarette smoking population has grown older.
Some 15% of 45-64-year-olds are daily cigarette smokers, cut in half vs. 20 years ago. Among 12–17-year-olds that number drops to 1.6% — barely more than a rounding error. For younger age groups, the data indicates that it’s not about quitting. They simply aren’t starting.
Maybe The FDA Is Doing It Wrong
Tobacco kills, nicotine addicts and flavors taste good, so the FDA chose the flavor ban as a solution to cigarette smoking and nicotine addiction. Menthol cigarette volume is 32.5% of Nielsen’s October 2023 52-week report. That shows maybe 2% of 18-24 year-olds are smoking menthols on a regular basis, when you adjust the math upward for age bias.
When compared to census data, only 5% of the total U.S. population across all ethnicities regularly smoke menthols, and that number is dropping.
While the bans make their journey to the marketplace, product innovators have figured out that a measurable percentage of menthol and flavored smokers will still enjoy the taste and relaxation of lighting up without nicotine. Nicotine is a key part of the experience, but that’s not all there is to it. Studies indicate that the cooling taste and feeling of menthol, clove and other flavors are satisfying in their own right.
Independent usage surveys and consumer smoking trials of nicotine-free non-tobacco menthols gained more than modest praise from smokers. Over 60% said they would buy a pack of non-tobacco filtered menthols after their own brand was gone from the c-store shelf. Some 18% of surveyed menthol smokers said they were “glad the nicotine was gone.”
What’s Holding Things Up?
Ironically, the FDA’s slow pace is delaying the rollout of non-addictive smoking alternatives. Some nicotine-free flavored smokes are ready right now, and a sustainable percentage of menthol smokers say they enjoy them, even with the taste differences in non-tobacco blends.
While the White House ponders caps on nicotine content, there will be few if any shelf slots for nicotine-free smokes until the FDA enforces what it started 11 years ago. Otherwise, it’s all just a waste of time and money.
Experience indicates there won’t be enough in the budget to adequately combat smuggling, and the tax losses will be substantial. Just ask Massachusetts.
Afterthoughts
The 20-year decline in tobacco use started long before the proposed menthol and flavor bans. Beyond the first 18 months, I don’t think the FDA bans will have much more impact than if they had never happened. By the time the bans begin to be enforced, cigarette use will have declined another few points and nicotine addiction to vape and other alternatives will still exist.